Renewal Forecasting
Forecast renewals by cohort and billing cycle to plan pricing moves.
Quick checklist
- Segment renewals by billing cycle.
- Track renewal rates by cohort.
- Separate churn from contraction.
- Validate forecast against recent trends.
- Review renewal risk monthly.
Step-by-step
- Build cohorts by signup month and plan.
- Calculate renewal rates for each cycle.
- Estimate churn impact on MRR and NRR.
- Add expansion assumptions by segment.
- Compare forecast to actuals each month.
What to watch
- Mixing logo churn with revenue churn.
- Using last quarter averages without seasonality.
- Ignoring renewal timing within the month.
Common mistakes
- Treating annual and monthly renewals the same.
- Ignoring plan migrations near renewal dates.
- Forecasting without a churn review process.
