PricingNest

Cohort Retention Curve Calculator

Model a 6-month retention curve from a cohort size and a constant monthly retention rate.

Inputs

Scenarios

Applies to the selected input only; adjust other inputs manually if needed.

Results

Month 1 retention
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Month 2 retention
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Month 3 retention
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Month 4 retention
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Month 5 retention
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Month 6 retention
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Month 6 retained users
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Insights

Auto-generated from your inputs.
Adjust inputs to see recommendations.

Compare

Save a baseline to see deltas for every output.
Month 1 retention
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Month 2 retention
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Month 3 retention
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Month 4 retention
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Month 5 retention
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Month 6 retention
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Month 6 retained users
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Sensitivity

Adjust the input to see how outputs respond to small changes.
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Month 2 retention
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Month 3 retention
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Month 4 retention
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Month 5 retention
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Month 6 retention
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Month 6 retained users
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Guide

This page is a calculator first, but it's also a quick reference you can share internally. Start with the presets, then adjust inputs and copy the share link. Example defaults for this tool are shown below.

Example Inputs Outputs How it works Modeling tips Validation checks Common mistakes Interpretation Use cases Mini walkthroughs Scenarios Edge cases FAQ

Example (defaults)

Example inputs: Starting cohort size = 1000, Monthly retention (%) = 95

Month 1 retention
95%
Month 2 retention
90.25%
Month 3 retention
85.74%
Month 4 retention
81.45%
Month 5 retention
77.38%
Month 6 retention
73.51%
Month 6 retained users
735.091891

Inputs explained

Input Default Notes
Starting cohort size 1000 Adjust to match your product assumptions.
Monthly retention (%) 95 Adjust to match your product assumptions.

Outputs explained

Output What it means
Month 1 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 2 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 3 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 4 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 5 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 6 retention A percentage value derived from the inputs.
Month 6 retained users A numeric value derived from the inputs.

How it works

  • We apply the monthly retention rate repeatedly across months.
  • Month N retention = (monthly retention rate ^ N) x 100.
  • Month 6 retained users = cohort size x monthly retention rate ^ 6.

Modeling tips

  • Use a trailing 3-6 month average retention rate for stability.
  • If early churn is higher, use the lower rate to be conservative.
  • Segment cohorts by plan or channel if retention differs materially.
  • If you have real cohort data, input the actual monthly retention instead.
  • Use the model to test how small improvements compound over time.

Validation checks

  • If retention is 100%, all monthly retention outputs should be 100%.
  • If retention is 0%, all outputs should be 0%.
  • Month 6 retained users should never exceed cohort size.

Common mistakes

  • Using annual retention as a monthly value.
  • Assuming retention is flat when early churn is spiky.
  • Using logo retention instead of revenue retention for financial planning.

Interpretation

  • Small changes in monthly retention compound quickly over 6 months.
  • If month 6 retention falls below target, prioritize onboarding and activation.
  • Use this to set realistic retention goals for new segments.

Use cases

Retention planning
Estimate how improvements in monthly retention change the 6-month curve.
Cohort benchmarking
Compare healthy vs at-risk retention scenarios for targets.

Mini walkthroughs

Baseline retention curve
  1. Enter your starting cohort size.
  2. Input the monthly retention rate.
  3. Review the 6-month curve and retained users.
Retention improvement
  1. Increase retention by 1-2 points.
  2. Observe the month 6 uplift.
  3. Use the delta to size retention investments.

Scenarios

Product-market fit
Use 97% retention to model a sticky product cohort.
New segment
Use 90% retention to model a higher-risk segment.
Retention program
Improve retention by 2 points to see compounding gains.

Edge cases

  • If cohort size is 0, all outputs should be 0.
  • If retention exceeds 100%, clamp to 100%.
  • Very low retention will reduce month 6 users to near zero.

FAQ

Is this based on real cohort data?
No. This is a model that assumes a constant monthly retention rate.
Why only 6 months?
Six months covers early retention dynamics where most SaaS churn happens.
Can I use this for revenue retention?
Yes, if the retention rate reflects revenue retention instead of user retention.